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Wednesday, December 7, 2022 11:00:43 AM UTC
Why There Won’t Be a Flood of Foreclosures Coming to the Housing Market

Why There Won’t Be a Flood of Foreclosures Coming to the Housing Market | Simplifying The Market

With the rapid shift that’s happened in the housing market this year, some people are raising concerns that we’re destined for a repeat of the crash we saw in 2008. But in truth, there are many key differences between what’s happening today and the bubble in the early 2000s.

One of the reasons this isn’t like the last time is the number of foreclosures in the market is much lower now. Here’s a look at why there won’t be a wave of foreclosures flooding the market.

Not as Many Homeowners Are in Trouble This Time

After the last housing crash, over nine million households lost their homes due to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they gave it back to the bank. This was, in large part, because of more relaxed lending standards where people could take out mortgages they ultimately couldn’t afford. Those lending practices led to a wave of distressed properties which made their way into the market and caused home values to plummet.

But today, revised lending standards have led to more qualified buyers. As a result, there are fewer homeowners who are behind on their mortgages. As Marina Walsh, Vice President of Industry Analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), says:

For the second quarter in a row, the mortgage delinquency rate fell to its lowest level since MBA’s survey began in 1979 – declining to 3.45%. Foreclosure starts and loans in the process of foreclosure also dropped in the third quarter to levels further below their historical averages.”

There Have Been Fewer Foreclosures over the Last Two Years

While you may have seen recent stories about the number of foreclosures rising today, context is important. During the pandemic, many homeowners were able to pause their mortgage payments using the forbearance program. The program gave homeowners facing difficulties extra time to get their finances in order and, in many cases, work out a plan with their lender.

With that program, many were concerned it would result in a wave of foreclosures coming to the market. That fear didn’t materialize. Data from the New York Fed shows there are still fewer foreclosures happening today than before the pandemic (see graph below):

Why There Won’t Be a Flood of Foreclosures Coming to the Housing Market | Simplifying The Market

That means, while there are more foreclosures now compared to last year (when foreclosures were paused), the number is still well below what the housing market has seen in a more typical year, like 2017-2019.

And most importantly, the number we’re seeing now is still far below the number we saw during the market crash (shown in the red bars in the graph). The big takeaway? Don’t let a headline in the news mislead you. While foreclosures are up year-over-year, historical context is essential to understanding the full picture.

Most Homeowners Have More Than Enough Equity To Sell Their Homes

Many homeowners today have enough equity to sell their homes instead of facing foreclosure. Due to rapidly rising home prices over the last two years, the average homeowner has gained record amounts of equity in their home. And if they’ve stayed in their homes even longer, they may have even more equity than they realize. As Ksenia Potapov, Economist at First American, says:

Homeowners have very high levels of tappable home equity today, providing a cushion to withstand potential price declines, but also preventing housing distress from turning into a foreclosure. . . the result will likely be more of a foreclosure ‘trickle’ than a ‘tsunami.’”

A recent report from ATTOM Data explains it by going even deeper into the numbers:

“Only about 214,800 homeowners were facing possible foreclosure in the second quarter of 2022, or just four-tenths of one percent of the 58.2 million outstanding mortgages in the U.S. Of those facing foreclosure, about 195,400, or 91 percent, had at least some equity built up in their homes.”

Bottom Line

If you see headlines about the increasing number of foreclosures today, remember context is important. While it’s true the number of foreclosures is higher now than it was last year, foreclosures are still well below pre-pandemic years. If you have questions, let’s connect.

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3 Ways You Can Use Your Home Equity

3 Ways You Can Use Your Home Equity | Simplifying The Market

If you’re a homeowner, odds are your equity has grown significantly over the last few years as home prices skyrocketed and you made your monthly mortgage payments. Home equity builds over time and can help you achieve certain goals. According to the latest Equity Insights Report from CoreLogic, the average borrower with a home loan has almost $300,000 in equity right now.

As you weigh your options, especially in the face of inflation and talk of a recession, it’s important to understand your assets and how you can leverage them. A real estate professional is the best resource to help you understand how much home equity you have and advise you on some of the ways you can use it.  Here are a few examples.

1. Buy a Home That Fits Your Needs

 If you no longer have the space you need, it might be time to move into a larger home. Or it’s possible you have too much space and need something smaller. No matter the situation, consider using your equity to power a move into a home that fits your changing lifestyle. 

If you want to upgrade your house, you can put your equity toward a down payment on the home of your dreams. And if you’re planning to downsize, you may be surprised that your equity may cover some, if not all, of the cost of your next home. A real estate advisor can help you figure out how much equity you have and how you can use it toward the purchase of your next home.

2. Reinvest in Your Current House

According to a recent survey from Point, 39% of homeowners would invest in home improvement projects if they chose to access their equity. This is a great option if you want to change some things about your living space but you aren’t ready to make a move just yet.

Home improvement projects allow you to customize your home to suit your needs and sense of style. Just remember to think ahead with any updates you make, as some renovations add more value to your home and are more likely to appeal to future buyers than others. For example, a report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows refinishing or replacing wood flooring has a high cost recovery. Lean on a local professional for the best advice on which projects to invest in to get the greatest return on your investment when you sell.

3. Pursue Your Personal Goals

In addition to making a move or updating your house, home equity can also help you achieve the life goals you’ve dreamed of. That could mean investing in a new business venture, retiring or downsizing, or funding an education. While you shouldn’t use your equity for unnecessary spending, leveraging it to start a business or putting it toward education costs can help you achieve other lifelong goals.

Bottom Line

Your equity can be a game changer. If you’re unsure how much equity you have in your home, let’s connect so you can start planning your next move.

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Winter Home Selling Checklist [INFOGRAPHIC]

Winter Home Selling Checklist [INFOGRAPHIC] | Simplifying The Market

Winter Home Selling Checklist [INFOGRAPHIC] | Simplifying The Market

Some Highlights

  • As you get ready to sell your house, focus on tasks that make it inviting, show it’s cared for, and boost your curb appeal.
  • This list will help you get started, but don’t forget, a real estate professional will provide other helpful tips based on your specific situation.
  • Let’s connect so you have advice on what you may want to do to get your house ready to sell this season.
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What You Want To Know If You’re Pursuing Your Dream of Homeownership

What You Want To Know If You’re Pursuing Your Dream of Homeownership | Simplifying The Market

If you’re a young adult, you may be thinking about your goals and priorities for the months and years ahead. And if homeownership ranks high on your goal sheet, you’re in good company. Many of your peers are also pursuing their dream of owning a home. The 2022 Millennial & Gen Z Borrower Sentiment Report from Maxwell says:

“Many young adults have demonstrated their resolve to embark on the journey toward homeownership soon. More than half of millennials and Gen Zs plan to apply for a mortgage sometime within the next year.”

Let’s take a look at why homeownership makes the top of so many young buyers’ to-do list and what you need to consider to achieve your goals if you’re one of them.

Top Motivators To Buy a Home

Before you start the homebuying process, it’s helpful to know why homeownership is so important to you. The survey mentioned above sheds light on some of the top reasons why younger generations are looking to buy a home. It finds:

No matter which of these resonates the most with you, know there are many financial and non-financial reasons why you may want to buy a home. While your top motivator may be different than that of your friends, they’re all equally valid and worthwhile.

Key Obstacles and How To Overcome Them

Whether your homeownership goals come from the heart or are driven by financial aspirations (or both), it can still be hard to know where to start when you’re looking to buy a home. From understanding the homebuying process, to getting pre-approved, and exploring down payment options, it’s a lot to wrap your head around.

The same Maxwell survey also reveals key challenges for potential buyers. Thankfully, the knowledge and guidance of a trusted real estate professional can help you overcome both. Here’s a look at two of the hurdles potential homebuyers say they face:

1. The Mortgage Process Can Be Intimidating

In the Maxwell study, 33.37% said one of their obstacles was that the mortgage process is confusing or difficult to understand.

An article by OwnUp helps explain why the mortgage process is so challenging for buyers:

“There is a general lack of knowledge about home financing. Mortgages are a complicated topic with no one-size-fits-all answer. It’s difficult to understand the space, let alone determine what the right course of action is based on your unique financial picture.

While you may be tempted to do a quick search online to find instant answers to your questions, it may not get you the information you need to understand the full picture. Especially when it comes to financial advice, you want to lean on a true expert. Having trusted professionals on your side can help you to learn what it takes to achieve your dream of homeownership. Not to mention, an expert can give you advice specific to your situation, not generic advice like you’ll find online.

2. It’s Hard To Know How Much You Need To Save

In the Maxwell study, 45.75% believe they don’t have enough saved to cover their down payment or closing cost expenses.

What you may not realize is that, today, there’s a growing number of down payment assistance programs available nationwide to help relieve this pressure. A report from Down Payment Resource says:

“Our Q3 2022 HPI report revealed a 1.6% uptick in the number of homebuyer assistance programs available to help people finance homes, raising the number of programs to 2,309, a net increase of 36 over the previous quarter.”

Additionally, as the housing market cools, buyers are regaining some negotiation power and more sellers are willing to work with buyers to help with closing costs.  Understanding what’s out there and the options available may help you achieve your dream of homeownership faster than you thought possible.

Bottom Line

If you’re serious about becoming a homeowner, know it may be more in reach than you think. Lean on trusted professionals to help you overcome challenges and prioritize your next steps.

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What’s Going on with Home Prices? Ask a Professional.

What’s Going on with Home Prices? Ask a Professional. | Simplifying The Market

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home this year, you may have questions about what’s happening with home prices today as the market cools. In the simplest sense, nationally, experts don’t expect prices to come crashing down, but the level of home price moderation will depend on factors like supply and demand in each local market.

That means, moving forward, home price appreciation will continue to vary by location, with more significant changes happening in overheated areas. Here’s a quick snapshot of what the experts are saying:

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, says:

“The major question on the minds of homeowners and aspiring buyers alike is what will happen to home prices. . . Soaring prices were propelled by all-time low mortgage rates which are a thing of the past. As a result, home price growth is expected to continue slowing, dipping below its pre-pandemic average to 5.4% for 2023, as a whole.

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:

“House price appreciation has slowed in all 50 markets we track, but the deceleration is generally more dramatic in areas that experienced the strongest peak appreciation rates.”

Taylor Marr, Deputy Chief Economist at Redfin, says:

“For those bearish folks eagerly awaiting the home price crash, you’ll have to keep waiting. As much as demand is pulling back supply is as well reducing downward pressure on prices in the short run.”

John Paulson, Founder of Paulson & Co., says:

“It’s true – housing may be a little frothy. So housing prices may come down or they may plateau . . .”

What Does This Mean for You?

The best way to get the answers you need is to lean on a local real estate advisor. They’ll be able to explain the latest trends in your specific market so you can make a confident and informed decision on your next step toward buying or selling a home.

Bottom Line

If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices today, let’s connect so you have the latest on our local market.

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California Theatre deal: Largest-ever downtown condo tower planned


By Phillip Molnar


There may be new life for the nearly 100-year-old California Theatre on C Street.


Preservationists have struck a deal with a developer that intends to construct a multi-million dollar 41-story condominium tower on the site of the historic theater. The compromise will preserve more of the building’s exterior and lobby, as well as use original ornamentation.


A dispute between preservation group Save Our Heritage Organisation, or SOHO, and the developer halted the demolition in March 2018. The new plan still calls for tearing down the heavily dilapidated building, but more of its exterior will be saved and a stronger effort will be made to faithfully reconstruct the building. The California Theatre, made up of a 2,200-seat theater and nine-story office building, closed in 1990.


Rising above the former theater, developers have decided on a 474-foot futuristic-style tower designed in partnership with San Diego-based Carrier Johnson + Culture. At 444 units, it would be the largest condominium complex in downtown’s history and rare in the apartment-heavy market.


The new design is expected to be reviewed by downtown planning agency Civic San Diego in July, and then reviewed by the city’s Planning Commission in August or September. The developer’s application said it hopes to start construction in March 2020 and complete it by September 2022.


The theater site at 1122 4th Avenue was purchased by Beverly Hills-based Sloan Capital Partners in 2006. The project is being developed by Caydon Property Group, an Australian company, which is coordinating with SOHO on the preservation of the site.


Bruce Coons, executive director of the preservationist organization, said the plan was a major improvement from the original design that gutted out the theater’s nine-story office building to be used for parking spots, and saved little of the original structure.


Instead, the new plan calls for reconstructing the lobby in its entirety. Much of the exterior will be rebuilt to look exactly like it was, but the interior will be modern. Efforts will be made to reuse ornamentation of the building in the new structure. The western wall with a large yellow Caliente horse racing advertisement cannot survive the reconstruction, but the developer will attempt to recreate it.


Coons said the organization is excited to be a part of the process.

“It will be a good, accurate reconstruction,” he said. “We will be working with the design team until it is completed.”

Caydon principal Joe Russo said in an emailed statement that while the building could not be saved, it has worked hard to rebuild the complex and honor its history.


“Our team is a big fan of the history behind the California Theatre and drawn to the details in the architecture,” he wrote. “We worked diligently on the design of the building to create a landmark destination that captures the essence of the community and celebrates the theater’s history.


Parts of the building have fallen off and are sitting behind a chain-link fence blocking the public from getting too close. Despite being shuttered for decades, plenty of people still sneak inside and post photos and videos online. The outside of the building is also a popular spot for homeless people to congregate with a city-operated bathroom, and portable toilets, nearby.


Plans for the building include a communal area and a dog park on the seventh floor, gym and yoga area on the eighth level, lap pool and sky deck on the ninth floor, and a lounge for residents on the top level. There will be 45 subsidized housing units and 252 underground parking spots. The design calls for an eco-roof on top of the office building and U.S. Green Building Council certifications for environmentally friendly features.


“Our project is both a new urban marker and a historical memory at the same time,” Giuditta De Santis, Caydon architect, said by email. “We were concerned about the site’s inter-connection between the past and the future.”


The design submitted to Civic San Diego proposed studios (average 567 square feet), one bedrooms (averaging 765 to 795 square feet), two bedrooms (averaging 1,081 to 1,129 square feet), three bedrooms (averaging 1,714 square feet) and penthouses averaging 1,71quare feet. The complex will include 7,445 square feet of retail.


The California Theatre opened in 1927 and was the largest movie palace in San Diego County. It started by playing silent, black-and-white films but later moved on to talkies. The space was also used for concerts and a bootleg Patti Smith album was recorded there in 1978.


Save Our Heritage Organisation and its attorneys had argued the city did not do its due diligence in originally approving the project by not considering other options for the building, as required by the California Environmental Quality Act.


C Street, centrally located downtown and on the San Diego Trolley route, may be undergoing a bit of renaissance in the coming years. A $400 million complex made up of mostly apartments has been proposed to replace the former courthouse. The Holland Partner Group project is about four blocks from the California Theatre site and, if both projects go through, could be a major change for one of downtown’s most shunned streets. Aside from governmental buildings and a few new restaurants, much of the street is made of bail bonds businesses and shuttered stores.


California Theatre narrowly becomes the largest-ever condo tower in downtown. The Grande at Santa Fe Place on Pacific Highway has 442 condos. Vantage Pointe on 9th Avenue, with 679 units, was developed as a condo building but ended up as apartments.


It will be interesting to see if it gets approved...Stay Tuned!

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In a real estate market where home prices are rising, many have begun to reexamine the idea of buying a home, choosing instead, to rent for a while. But often, there is a dilemma: should you keep paying rent, knowing that rent is rising too, or should you lock in your housing cost and buy a home?

Let’s look at both scenarios and analyze the pros and cons of each:

Renting

With the housing market crash in 2008, many homeowners lost their homes and became renters. According to Iproperty Management, “the number of households renting their home … rose from 31.2% of households in 2006 to 36.6% in 2016”.


Some choose to rent because it is more convenient for their lifestyle. Those whose job requires frequent moves need the flexibility that a 6-12 month lease agreement gives them so they can move to their next assignment!


Many renters believe that renting is cheaper because they do not have to pay for maintenance and repairs. (Not true! Landlords work those expenses into your rent and other fees). Another reason many rent is that they feel like they cannot afford the down payment and closing costs required to buy a house, due to their inability to save much after paying their monthly expenses.


That can be true! Nearly 1 in 4 renters spend at least half their household income on rent. In 2017 the “severely” burdened renters’ rate was 24.7% with 24.9% reporting they were “moderately” burdened.


Renting also brings some financial disadvantages. Homeowners can take advantage of tax deductions that let them claim their property taxes and mortgage interest. Additionally, there is a big risk that your rent will go up every time you renew your lease, as we know the median asking rent has been increased steadily since 1988!



One of the major challenges with renting is that you don’t have a space to call your own. When you rent, you are paying your landlord’s mortgage, and therefore they are the beneficiaries of the equity gained from paying that mortgage.

Now let’s explore the other side: Homeownership

In the past, we have mentioned the many financial and non-financial benefits of becoming a homeowner. So, let’s just focus on the one big difference between renting and owning, the ability to lock in your housing cost!


Assuming you will have a fixed-rate mortgage, your costs are predictable! You will know exactly what your mortgage payment will be for the next 15-30 years. The homeownership rate in 2018 was 64.4%, and has been on the rise. Those households locked in their housing cost rather than wait for their landlord to raise their rent again!


What are the disadvantages of owning a home? Well, it is a long-term financial commitment! It is not easy to pack quickly and move. You will need time and good planning to do it in a short amount of time.


You need to save your money! Getting a mortgage requires a down payment, closing costs, and moving expenses. Again, that will require some savings and planning!


Unless you have a homeowner’s association (HOA) (and you pay an HOA fee) or a home warranty, you will be responsible for maintenance and taking care of the home. This may range anywhere from regular landscaping to major repairs.

Bottom Line

Like everything in life, there are pros and cons. What is better for you depends on your situation! If you are interested in becoming a homeowner and want to discuss the pros and cons, contact me today and I can help you review your current situation!


Or you can search live listings now

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During the housing market crash, Gen X homeowners lost more wealth than other generations. However, things are changing now! A strong economy, increasing home prices, and the recovery of the housing market are helping this generation to regain their lost wealth.


According to Pew Research Center,

Their fortunes have rebounded more than those of other generations during the post-recession economic expansion and as home and stock prices have risen. Since 2010, the median net worth of Gen X households has risen 115%. In fact, in 2016, the most recent year with available data, the net worth of a typical Gen X household had surpassed what it was in 2007 ($84,200 vs. $63,400)”.

The same report also mentioned,

15% of Gen X’s homeowners were ‘underwater’ on their homes in 2010 (meaning they owed more than they owned). By 2016 only 3% were underwater.

As a result of homes regaining market value and their increasing net worth, many Gen Xers are presented with the opportunity of selling their current home in order to move up to the house they always dreamed of!

According to the 2019 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report by the National Associations of Realtors, in 2018 Gen Xers made up the second largest share of home buyers by generation at 24%.


The report also provided some highlights about their purchase:

  • Greatest share that purchased a multi-generational home (16%).
  • Largest share that purchased a detached single-family home (88%).
  • Highest median household income ($111,100).
  • Bought the most expensive homes of all the generations.
  • Job-related relocation was identified as the primary reason to buy.

But this generation is not only buying- they are selling too!

  • Largest share of home sellers (25%).
  • Highest median household income among sellers ($123,6000).
  • Tenure in the previous home was a median of 9 years.
  • House too small was indicated as the primary reason to sell.
  • 91% sold the home using a real estate professional.

Bottom Line

If you are a Gen Xer who would like to know exactly how much your house is worth today so that you can move up to the home of your dreams, contact me today 619-997-4241 and I can help you analyze your current circumstances.


Or you can click here to start searching live properties NOW!

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A lot is happening in the world, and it’s having a direct impact on the housing market. The reality is this: some of it is positive and some of it may be negative. Some we just don’t know yet.


The following three areas of the housing market are critical to understand: interest rates, building materials, and the outlook for an economic slowdown.

1. Interest Rates

One of the most important things to consider when buying a home is the interest rate you will be charged to borrow the money. The latest information from Freddie Mac makes it appear they are. We are currently at a 21-month low in interest rates.



2. Building Materials


Talk of tariffs could also affect the housing market. According to a recent article, the National Association of Home Builders reports that as much as $10 billion in goods imported from China are used in homebuilding. Depending on the outcome of the tariff and trade discussions between several countries, there could be as much as a 25% boost in the cost of building materials.


3. Economic Slowdown


We began the year with many economic leaders thinking we could expect a recession in late 2019 or early 2020. As spring approached, economists have now started to push that projection past 2020.  Now, three leading surveys indicate that it may begin in the next eighteen months.



Bottom Line

We are in a strong housing market. Wages are increasing, home prices are appreciating, and mortgage rates are the lowest they have been in 21 months.  Whether you are thinking of buying or selling, it’s a great time to be in the market.

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What is Important to Boomers when Selling their House?


If you are a “baby boomer” (born between 1946 and 1964), you may be thinking about selling your current home. Your children may have finally moved out. Your large, four-bedroom house with three bathrooms no longer fits the bill. Taxes are too high. Utilities are too expensive. Cleaning and repair are too difficult. You may be ready to move into a home that better fits your current lifestyle. Many fellow boomers have already made the move you may be considering.

The National Association of Realtors recently released their 2019 Home Buyer and Seller Generational Report. The report revealed many interesting tidbits about both categories of baby boomers: younger boomers (ages 54 to 63) and older boomers (64 to72). Here are a few of the more interesting topics.

Percentage of Buyers who Looked Online First

  • All Buyers: 44%
  • Younger Boomers: 46%
  • Older Boomers: 44%

Where Boomers Found the Home They Purchased

The two major ways buyers found the home they purchased:

  • All buyers: 50% on the internet, 28% through a real estate agent
  • Younger Boomers: 46% on the internet, 33% through a real estate agent
  • Older Boomers: 36% on the internet, 35% through a real estate agent

Distance Seller Moved

The distance between the home they purchased and the home they recently sold was much greater for boomers than the average seller.

  • All sellers: 20 miles
  • Younger Boomers: 27 miles
  • Older Boomers: 50 miles

Tenure in Previous Home of Seller

The percentage of older boomers who lived in their previous home for more than 20 years was almost twice the amount of the average seller.

  • All sellers: 16%
  • Younger Boomers: 20%
  • Older Boomers: 31%

Primary Reason to Sell their Previous Home

  • Want to move closer to friends or family
  • Home too large
  • Retirement

View of Homeownership as a Financial Investment

  • 83% of Younger Boomers see homeownership as a good investment
  • 82% of Older Boomers see homeownership as a good investment

Bottom Line

If you are a boomer and thinking about selling, now might be the time to contact an agent to help determine your options.

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Are Millennials The Key To Future Housing Demand?


Housing demand has been taking some hits lately with rising home prices, lack of affordable inventory, and lingering student loan debt, but millennials may be the key to where it goes in the near future.


The tough conditions for buyers in the market that may be slowing demand have mostly been balanced by low unemployment and a strong economy, but recent numbers have shown that a market stalemate between these forces may be developing. CNBC ran a report this week that despite this, we may be on the edge of “an absolute perfect storm for demand” thanks to millenials, and they may be the force that tips the scales of home buying.


I wrote in our last blog about how the percentage of millenials who say they’re actively seeking to purchase a home is now exceeding generation X and the baby boomers, and although those two other generations are key to the housing market, the enormous numbers of the millennial generation represent a huge potential impact. Millennials have broadly been later to marry and have children, and similarly late to home ownership. Student loan debt is a part of that, but as the job market strengthens for them, and as they age and begin families, they’ve become a massive population who are saying loudly that they want to become homeowners too.


Household formation should continue to grow strongly over the next few years, according to the report, and we should be poised to see large numbers of people bolstering demand. It will continue to be a balancing act with the homebuilders though. Whether they can overcome labor shortages, and trade / tariff difficulties with raw materials, enough to keep up with demand remains to be seen.


What do you think? Will millennial demand outweigh any market slow down? How long will it be before we see their big numbers make an impact? Leave me a reply or ask me any questions you have below! And if you’re thinking of whether it’s a good time for you to buy or sell, lets talk about the ins and outs of the current market. Contact me today for any of your real estate needs!

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